Unpacking Somaliland Independence challenge:
The current prevailing narrative of the sanctity of Somaliland Independence has been weakened due to the following factors:
1) Prime Minister Abiya and Ambassador Yamamoto are both pushing for unification, While Abiye is facing ethnic division at home that might pave the way for the disintegration of the Ethiopian Federal States. In order to suppress this new ethnic separatest movement , Abiye has come up with the unrealistic goal of regional integration in an attempt to unite his own country and silence the separatist movements taking hold domestically.
2) Americans are more interested in the strategic location of Somalia and its natural resources. They have lost in Iraq and Syria terribly while the Russians have been calling the shots in Libya. America and its dark corporations have many secret military locations in Somalia as well as oil field concessions and want to have a powerful say in the future of Somalia before it’s too late.
3) The Nabad iyo Nolol rhetoric of Farmajo and Khaire has worked well in creating the impression that they are serious statesmen, they have lured the young in both Somalia and Somaliland. Their limited power on the ground in Somalia has been compensated by their international support. But one must not be fooled by their political maneuverings ,they are part of a whole host of interest groups vying for Somali resources. Having said that, they have made a significant dent on the idea of the sanctity of Somaliland Independence
4) The reactive foreign policy approach of the Somaliland government and the lack of engagement in all parts of Somaliland society at home which has inadvertently reduced the engagement of the diaspora abroad has resulted in a lack of enthusiasm towards Independence Agenda and the current government , unlike the popular support for the political class which we witnessed in the President Egal and Riyale era .
In conclusion Somaliland is facing political and financial pressures, until now, there is no single country that actively supports Somaliland independence. President Behi’s only card is to unite the people of Somaliland once again, both home and abroad, to achieve that he must be willing to shed tears like the late great independence leader of Singapore Lee Kuan Yew, along with tackling the dangers his nation faces in relation to the idea of the Somaliland Independence.