The Horn of Africa is entering a new and increasingly complex geopolitical phase, as global powers and influential regional states compete for strategic influence across one of the world’s most sensitive regions.

From Somalia and Somaliland to Ethiopia, Sudan, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, a growing number of international actors are seeking to protect their security, economic and geopolitical interests.

The United States, China, the European Union, Turkey, the African Union and the United Nations remain important players. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states have expanded their political, economic and security involvement across the region.

According to former US Ambassador David Shinn, the result is an increasingly complicated geopolitical landscape in which many external powers are pursuing their own interests rather than acting in coordination.

Washington and Somaliland: A Policy of Strategic Ambiguity

The question of Somaliland remains one of the most sensitive issues in US policy toward the Horn of Africa.

According to Ambassador Shinn, Washington’s formal position remains its recognition of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Federal Republic of Somalia, including Somaliland.

At the same time, however, the United States has been increasing its engagement with Somaliland, particularly in the areas of security and strategic cooperation.

Somaliland’s geographical position and the importance of Berbera Port have attracted growing international attention.

Shinn noted that US Africa Command maintains regular contact with Somaliland authorities and that Washington sees Somaliland’s ports as potential alternatives to other congested facilities in the region.

But despite growing strategic interest, Shinn said there are currently no plans for the United States to establish a military base in Somaliland.

The situation is complicated by political pressure inside Washington. Some members of the US Congress, including Senator Ted Cruz, have strongly advocated recognition of Somaliland.

This raises a critical question:

Could pressure from Congress eventually lead to a change in US policy?

Shinn believes that such a possibility cannot be ruled out in the long term, although the official US position has not yet changed.

Somalia and Washington: Growing Ambiguity

The United States also appears to be reassessing its long-standing approach to Somalia.

After more than two decades of international efforts aimed at state-building and security, Washington appears increasingly frustrated by the limited progress.

The United States continues to support Somalia’s federal government, but at the same time it has maintained contacts with regional authorities, including Puntland and Jubaland, as well as with Somaliland.

According to Shinn, this approach sends mixed signals.

On one hand, Washington continues to emphasize Somalia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. On the other, it maintains direct relationships with political actors whose positions sometimes differ sharply from those of Mogadishu.

Security cooperation, however, is expected to continue.

Shinn pointed to increased US military activity against Islamic State militants in Puntland and northern Somalia, describing the US role there as particularly significant this year.

Israel’s Recognition of Somaliland and the Red Sea

One of the most significant developments discussed in the interview is Israel’s recognition of Somaliland.

For Somaliland, the move represents a major diplomatic breakthrough after years of seeking formal international recognition.

For Israel, however, the calculation is closely linked to regional security.

Somaliland sits along the Gulf of Aden, close to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and across the Red Sea from Yemen.

Israel has deep concerns about the Houthi movement, Iran’s regional influence and the movement of weapons through the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

From Israel’s perspective, closer relations with Somaliland could provide greater access to information about developments across the Red Sea and in Yemen.

There have also been reports suggesting that Israel could seek a military presence in Berbera.

Shinn, however, expressed doubt that Israel would establish a permanent military base there.

He nevertheless suggested that Israeli naval vessels or aircraft could potentially operate in and out of Berbera in the future.

For Somaliland, the calculation is different.

Its leadership sees the Israeli recognition as a potential first step toward securing recognition from additional countries.

So far, however, there has been no immediate wave of countries following Israel’s lead.

Ethiopia: Still Central to US Strategy

Despite the growing importance of Somalia and Somaliland, Ethiopia remains at the center of US strategy in the Horn of Africa.

Shinn described Ethiopia as historically one of the most important players in the region for Washington.

The United States is currently seeking to strengthen its relationship with Addis Ababa, particularly through economic engagement and major infrastructure projects.

Washington is also attempting to compete with China in strategic infrastructure development, including Ethiopia’s plans for a major new international airport outside Addis Ababa.

At the same time, the United States remains concerned about instability around Ethiopia.

Potential conflicts involving Ethiopia and Eritrea, Ethiopia and Sudan, as well as renewed internal tensions within Ethiopia, could have serious consequences for the wider region.

Washington therefore has a strong interest in preventing new conflicts and preserving political stability.

Egypt, Ethiopia and the Nile

Egypt’s expanding role in the Horn of Africa is another important part of the emerging geopolitical picture.

According to Shinn, Cairo’s policy toward the region is largely shaped by one overriding strategic concern: the Nile.

Egypt views Ethiopia’s development of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and its broader control over Nile waters as a major national security issue.

This has contributed to stronger Egyptian relations with Somalia and Eritrea.

Cairo sees Somalia as a potential strategic partner in balancing Ethiopia, while Eritrea also occupies an important position along the Red Sea.

Egypt is particularly opposed to Ethiopia gaining significant maritime access or establishing a military presence along the Red Sea coast.

The result is a widening strategic competition involving Egypt, Ethiopia, Somalia, Eritrea and the wider international community.

China Expands Its Footprint

At the same time, China is steadily expanding its influence across the region.

Unlike previous decades, China’s engagement is no longer limited to trade and infrastructure.

According to Shinn, Beijing is increasingly involved in defense cooperation, technology, infrastructure and the space sector.

Egypt provides one of the clearest examples.

China has expanded military and economic cooperation with Cairo while also becoming increasingly involved in infrastructure and space-related activities.

This gives Egypt more options in its international partnerships and reduces its traditional dependence on Washington and Moscow.

For the United States, this represents a growing strategic challenge.

The Gulf States: New Regional Power Brokers

The geopolitical contest in the Horn of Africa is no longer simply a competition between the United States and China.

Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and other regional powers have emerged as influential actors.

Sudan is perhaps the clearest example of how external powers can shape conflicts inside the region.

The war between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces has created one of the world’s largest humanitarian crises, with millions displaced and severe food insecurity.

Shinn argued that external support for the warring parties has contributed to prolonging the conflict.

If outside powers reduced or ended their support, he suggested, there could be a greater chance of bringing the war to an end.

However, Gulf investment is not necessarily negative.

The UAE, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have invested heavily in agriculture, infrastructure and other economic projects across the Horn of Africa.

The challenge is ensuring that such investments also benefit local populations rather than primarily serving the strategic and economic interests of the investors.

US Policy Toward Africa Under Trump

Shinn also criticized several elements of the Trump administration’s approach to Africa.

He described the dismantling of USAID as a serious mistake.

While he acknowledged that governments have the right to reform or cancel aid programs, he argued that abolishing the agency weakened America’s ability to manage development assistance effectively.

US aid to Africa has continued, but at a reduced level and increasingly under the State Department.

According to Shinn, this has created institutional challenges because American embassies do not always have the personnel and expertise previously available through USAID.

He also criticized restrictions affecting African travelers seeking US visas, arguing that the reduction of visa services sends the wrong message to the continent.

Another emerging feature of US policy is the emphasis on critical minerals.

Countries possessing strategically important minerals are receiving greater attention from Washington.

But Shinn warned that focusing too heavily on natural resources could undermine America’s broader relationship with Africa.

The Weakening Role of Regional Institutions

The African Union, IGAD, the European Union and the United Nations remain important institutions in the region, but their effectiveness varies.

The United Nations continues to play a major humanitarian role through agencies working on refugees, food security and health.

The African Union, however, has struggled to deliver effective solutions to some of the region’s major political crises.

IGAD faces an additional challenge: some of its member states are themselves involved in political disputes or conflicts.

That makes it difficult for the organization to act as an effective mediator.

The European Union remains engaged in the region, but the overall picture suggests that international institutions are facing increasing difficulties in responding to the rapidly changing geopolitical environment.

Democracy and Governance

For Shinn, one of the most important long-term solutions is greater support for democratic governance.

He argued that international actors should do more to encourage democratic institutions across the Horn of Africa.

Somaliland, he suggested, remains one of the region’s more democratic political systems, although it too faces challenges, including concerns over press freedom.

Other countries in the region face significantly greater democratic difficulties.

Ultimately, however, Shinn emphasized that democratic transformation cannot simply be imposed from outside.

The people and governments of the region must themselves decide that they want stronger democratic institutions.

The Diaspora: An Underused Source of Influence

The large African diaspora in Europe, North America and elsewhere also has an important role to play.

Somaliland provides one example.

According to Shinn, members of the Somaliland diaspora have made significant contributions to the country’s economic and social development through investment and remittances.

Similar patterns can be seen among Somali and Ethiopian communities abroad.

The political role of the diaspora is more complicated because communities are often divided over political issues.

When diaspora groups speak with competing voices, their ability to influence policy in countries such as the United States can be weakened.

But economically and socially, their contribution remains significant.

The Way Forward

The central question is no longer simply who controls the Horn of Africa.

It is whether the region’s governments can transform growing international competition into an opportunity for development rather than allowing it to fuel further instability.

A more sustainable approach would require greater investment in economic development, stronger democratic institutions, regional diplomacy and locally led conflict resolution.

External powers, meanwhile, could play a more constructive role by reducing support for armed factions and focusing on long-term economic partnerships rather than short-term geopolitical gains.

The Horn of Africa sits at the crossroads of the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and some of the world’s most important maritime routes.

Its strategic importance is unlikely to diminish.

What remains uncertain is who will shape the region’s future—and whether that future will be defined by cooperation and development, or by another generation of geopolitical rivalry and conflict.

For Somaliland, Somalia and the wider Horn of Africa, the stakes have never been higher.