Africa Saamaynta Dhaqaale Ee Covid 19
Wadamadda qaaradda Africa kuma taagna qoton dhaqaale oo adag, waxa ayna wajahaan dhaqaale burbur markasta oo xaalad cakiran oo dhaqaale dunida ka dhacdo. Wadamadda adduunka waxaa ka dhexeeya oo isku xidha dhaqaalahooda ganacsi wadhoofinta iyo soodejinta, adeega macaamiisha, maalgashiga, socodka lacagta, dadka iyo macluumaadka. Sanadkan 2020 Afrika waxa ay wajahaysaa hoos u dhac dhaqaale Covid 19 dartiis.
Warbixin sanadle ah oo Bangiga Hormarinta Afrika daabaco sanad walba ayaa koboca dhaqaalaha Afrika 2020 lagu sheegay in uu kor u kici doono 3.9%, halka 2019 uu ahaa 3.4% iyada oo sanadka 2021 la rajaynayo +4.1%. Koboca dhaqaalaha 2020 waxa saacidaya ayaa lagu yidhi beeraha, waxsoosaarka warshadaha, iyo maalgalinta kaabayaasha dhaqaalaha (tamarta, biyaha, jidadka,isgaadhsiinta iyo tiknoolajiyada internet-ka).
2019 halbeega waxsoosaarka GDP-ga iyo celceliska koboca dhaqaalaha ‘average economic growth’ wadamadda Afrika waxa ugu fiicnaa Nigeria $397.4B, South Africa $ 376.8B, Masar $294.4B, Algeria $188.9B, iyo Morocco $118.1B, waana shanta waddan ee uu xooga u saameeyay qaaradda COVID 19. Shantaa waddan wadarta guud ee waxsoosaarka qaaradda waa 60% of GDP.
Midowga Afrika AU ayaa soosaaray warbixin uu ciwaan uga dhigay Saamaynta Covid 19 Dhaqaalaha Afrika “Impact of the corona virus on the African economy”. Ilaha saamaynta dhibato dhaqaale ee warbixinta lagu xusay waxa ka mida dalxiiska ‘tourism’, waxdhoofinta ‘exports’, dakhliga maaliyada ‘fiscal revenue’, wareega lacagta ‘currency circulation’, maalgalinta tooska ah ee dibada ‘FDI’, saamiyadda maalgalinta ‘portfolio investment’, qiimaha badeecadaha ‘commodity price’, xawaaladaha ‘remitance’, duulimaadyada ‘aviation’, saliida qaydhiin ‘crude oil’, shaqada iyo adeega.
Dalxiisku waa waax muhiim u ah dhaqaalaha Afrika warbixinta sida lagu dhex sheegay iyada oo ha’ayadaha WTTC iyo IATA laga soo xiganayo warbixinihii ay daabaceen, qaaradda Afrika dalxiisayaasha u soo safray ayaa 2019 dhanaa 70 milyan oo qof, dalxiisayaasha oo GDP-ga ka noqonaya 8.5% oo u dhiganta in laga helay dakhli dhan $194 Billion. Afrika waa qaarada labaad ee dunida ugu korodhka badan dalxiisayaasha ilaa 5.6% 2018, marka la barbar dhigo xadiga celceliska guud 3.9%. Guud ahaan dhaqaalaha dalxiiska dunida ayaa hoos u dhacay $300 ilaa $450 Billion marka la barbar dhigo 2019-kii oo ay soo xorootay $1.5 Trillion (Global Tourism GDP). Meelaha ugu horeeya dalxiisak Afrika waa Morroca 2019 ilaa 11 Million oo dalxiisayaala ‘tourist’ ayaa yimid, Masar 11.35 million oo ruux, South Africa 10.05 million, Tunisia 8.3 million, iyo Zimbabwe 2.5 million. Korodhka dalxiisayaasha ‘tourism growth ’Afrika ee sanadka waxa lagu qiyaasay 3% ilaa 5%.
05, March, 2020 ha’ayadda IATA waxa ay sheegtay in Covid 19 carqaladayn doono shirkadaha duulimaadyadda. Diyaaradaha ayaa soo saaray dhaqaale dhan $830 Billion sanadkii 2019-ka iyadoo la filayay in uu $872 Billion sanadkan, warbixintu waxa ay tilmaamaysaa in la waayi doono aduun $113 Billion, maadaama waddamo badan joojiyeen duulimaadyadii caalamiga ahaa ‘international flights’, duulimaadyadii gudaha qaarada ‘intra-Africa flights’ iyo kuwii maxaliga dalalka ahaa tusaale Shirkada duulimaadyada Ethiapian Airline waxa la tilmaamayaa khasaare $190 Million ah inay wajihi doonto 2020.
Hoos u dhaca dhoofinta saliida qaydhiin ‘exports crude oil’ iyo yaraynta dalabka alaabta dhismaha ‘reduction demand construction’ ayaa culays dhaqaale oo toosa ku keenaya waddamada qaaradda ee dhoofiya saliida qaydhin. Sicirka saliida qaydhiin ayaa hoos u dhacay 30% ilaa uu gaadhay $31 dollar halkii foosto ‘barrel’. Hay’adda Caalamiga ah ee Tamarta ayaa rajaysay in baahida saliida ay gaadhi doonto 99.9 milyan foosto maalintii sanadkan 2020, taas oo hoos u dhigaysa dhimista ku dhawaad 1.5 million oo foosto maalintii. Labada waddan ee Angola iyo Nigeria oo ah labada ugu balaadhan soosaarayaasha saliida ‘largest producers of oil’ waxa ay wajahayaan hoos u dhac dhan $65 billion. Koonfur Afrika macdanta ay u dhoofiso suuqyadda caalamka gaar ahaa Shiinaha 2019 waxa ay ka heshay aduun dhan $405 Million.
Ganacsiga aduunka waxa qaada 35% diyaaradaha, 47% maraakiibta, 17% gawaadhida xamuulka. Sida ha’ayada UNTACD daabacday 2015-2020 wadarta celcelis ganacsi ‘continent average trade’ qaarada ayaa ahayd $760 Billion sanadkiiba oo u taagan 29% of GDP. Ganacsiga qaaradda iskaga kala dhex gudba ‘intra-african trade’ ayaa lagu sheegay boqolkiiba 17% kaliyaata inuu ka yahay ganacsiga guud ‘global trade’. Warshadaha Africa waxa ay ku tiirsan yihiin Shiinaha iyo wadamadda kale ee dibada. Afrika meelaha ay wax u dhoofiso waxaa ka mid ah; Shiinaha 34%, India 14%, Yurub 14% Maraykanka 9% iyo qaarada dhexdeeda
Marka u dhaco hoos u dhac dhaqaale ‘economic recession’ waxa u fure u yahay hoos u dhac ganacsi ‘decline trade’ hoos u dhac ganacsi hadii uu yimaadana waxaa bata xadiga shaqo’aanta ‘increas of rate unemployment’. Intaniba iyadda oo hadda aduunyada iyo qaaradda ka aloosan tahay ayuu Covid 19 camal tiri doonaa 25 Million oo ruux/qof, 76.6% waa waddamada saxaraha ka hooseeya ‘SSA’.
Xawaaladuhu waa ilaha dhaqaale ee ugu muhimsan qaaradda, gaar ahaan Masar 2018 dakhliga ay ka heshay waxa uu gaadhay $25.5 Billion, marka la barbar dhigo 2017 oo ahaa raasamaal dhan $24.7 Billion. Nigeria xawaalahada 2018 waxa ay ka heshay dakhli $25.08 Billion.
Tixraac
Halkan guji oo ka akhriso macuumaadka saamaynta dhaqaale ee covid 19 ay Midowga Africa daabacday
WQ Bashir Maxamed Bashir
