Saamaynta Dhaqaale ee Corona Virus 2020

Saddexdii bilood ee u dambeeyay dunida, sayladaha saamiyadda adduunka (World stock markat), dhaqaalaha caalamka (Global economy), iyo ganacsi guud waxaa saameeyay xanuunka Korona Fayras. Khubarada dhinaca dhaqaalaha ee ka kala tirsan London Economic School, UNSW Business School, IMF, OECD, WB, ADB, AUEC, jariiradaha Independent, The Guardian, New York times, CNBC, VOA, Reuters, BBC iyo warbaahinadda Aljazeera, Arirang, CBS News, Global News, SABC, Sky News iyo Saab TV ayaa dhamaantood sheegaya in dunidu wajahayso hoos u dhac weyn oo dhaqaale (heavily decline of global economy) sababta fiditaanka Covid 19 awadeed.

Xanuunka Korona Fayras oo bishii December 2019 laga helay gobolka Hubei, magaaladiisa Wahun ee Shiinaha ayaa farabaas ku haya caafimaadkii, ganacsigii iyo dhaqaalihii. Covid 19 dunida waxa uu ku keenay saamayn xun (Bad impact) oo dhaqaale aadna u gun balaadhan. Waxa uuna ku faafay waddamo badan ilaa 192 dal sida ay diwaangalisay ha’ayadda WHO bisha March 2020. Dhibaatada caafimaad ee uu keenay waxaa wehelisa saamayn dhaqaale (Economic impact) oo adag, taasi oo adkaan doonta in dhakhso looga kabto.

Dhaqaalaha adduunka ayaa gebi ahaanba hadda ku sugan xaalad aad iyo aad u adag, hoos u dhaca dhaqaale ee soo foodsaaray waa mid raad toosa (Direct effect) ku yeeshay waddamada dunida iyo dadka ku dhaqan ba. In kastoo dadka wax odorosaa xooogoodu arkayeen saamaynta xanuunku ku yeelan karo koboca dhaqaalaha (Global Economic Growth), isku socodka iridaha badeecadaha (Channel commodities), iyo ganacsiga adduunka (Global Trade). Haddana xeeldheerayaasha dhaqaaluhu waxa ay isku raaceen khakhalka dhaqaale ee dunida soo wajahay in uu yahay kii u xumaa ee dhaca dagaalkii labaad kadib (WW2), masiibadii musalafnimo dhaqaale ee la magacbaxday Salaasadii Madoobayd (Black Tuesday) 1927-kii, burburkii dhaqaale ee la magac baxay Bisaaraddii Weynayd (The Great Depression) iyo xanuunkii SARS sidii uu 2003-dii raadka u yeeshay, markii uu fayraska ku dhacay Shiinaha. Shiinaha markii fayraska SARS ku dhuftay GDP-giisu wuxuu ahaa $1.6T, khasaare dhan $40B ayuu SARS, shiinaha gaadhsiiyay. Maanta Shiinuhu wuxuu fadhiyaa qiyaastii $16T. 2017 Shiinaha GDP-giisu waxa uu ahaa $12.2T, halka saami dakhi (per capital income) ee qofka shiinuhu uu ahaa $16.8K. 17sano Shiinuhu kahor dhaqaalaha kownka wuxuu ka ahaa 5%, maantana waxa uu ka badan yahay 16%.

Qiyaas ahaan $80 Trillion ayaa lagu cabiraa waxsoosaarka maanta dhaqaalaha caalamka. $20T oo u dhigmaysa 25% America ayaa gacanta ku haysa, halka Shiinuhu $16T uu isna gacanta ku hayo, waana sababta labada waddan kaalinta koowaad iyo ta labaad ee dhaqaalaha adduunka labada kaalin ugu kala jiraan. Dhaqaalaha Shiinaha iyo Maraykanku waa dhaqaalaha adduunka, isbedeladooda dhaqaale iyo saamaynaha soo foodsaara waxa ay gilgilaan dunida, sida hadda dhacaysa.

Hay’adda Lacagta Adduunka ayaa sheegtay inay diyaar u tahay inay adeegsato awoodeeda amaahda $1T ah ee loogu talo galay in lagu caawiyo waddamada adduunka ee la halgamaya saameynta bina-aadamnimada iyo dhaqaalaha ee korona fayras-ka.  Iyadna sidoo Hay’adda ganacsiga iyo hormarinta ee QM ayaa sheegtay, in faafitaanka korona fayras ku kici karo dhaqaaalaha adduunka oo gaadhaya ilaa $2T sanadkan, iyagoo ka digaya in halista ka dhalan kartaa cudurkaas ay u horseedi doonto u dhac ku yimaada waddamada qaarood isla markaana ay hoos u dhigto kororka sanadlaha ah ee caalamiga ah oo ka hooseeya 2.5. Ururka OECD waxa ay sheegeen in Covid 19 korodhkii waxsoosaarka maxaliga dunida ee GDP uu hoos u dhacay 29.% ilaa 2.4% yoolka koboc ee 2020.

Shiinuhu waa xuduntii uu ka soo if-baxay xanuunku, waana barta saamayta dhaqan-dhaqaale (Socio-economic) ee u weyn u gaysanayo maadaama Shiinuhu yahay waddanka ugu weyn ee adduunyada wax u dhoofiya una waxsoosaarka badan.

Shiinuhu waa waddanka labaad ee ugu dhaqaalaha badan dunida, waana waddanka kooowaad ee ugu dhoofinta badan adduunka (World Largest Exporter). Dhaqaalaha adduunka marka la eego isku dhafka sanadkii 2019, Shiinuhu waxa uu dhoofiyay $2.97 Trillion, dhoofintan oo waxdhoofinta caalamka ka noqonaysa 13%, qiimo ahaana ah $19.2 Trillion. 2019 Shiinuhu waxa uu soo dajistay $1.5 Trillion, tani oo u dhalisay isku dheelitir ganacsi togan ah (+Trade balance) oo dhan ilaa $873B. Shiinuhu haaf ka mida wax dhoofkiisa dibadeed waxa uu u dhoofshaa waddamada Aasiya 20.1%, halka 19.9% uu u dhoofshay Yurub, halka UK u dhoofshay (2.5%), America waxa uu u dhoofhsay 16.8% waxdhoof dhan $418B, halka 4.2% uu u dhoofshay Koonfur America, halka Africa 4.5% uu u soo dhoofshay wax dhoofintiisa guud ee caalamka.

Dhaqaaalaha Shiinaha waxaa door weyn ka ciyaara dhoofinta qalabka warbaahinta ($231B), mashiinadda korontada ($152B),koobiitaradda ($146B), gawaadhida ($46.8B), tilifoonada ($62B), qalabyadda xafiisyadda ($90.8B), balastiga ($19B) dharka ($72.8B), kabaha ($47.8B) cuntada, ,soo saarita birta($53.1B), qalabka guryaha lagu qurixyo, qalabka gaadiidka lagu farsameeyo IWM. Waxa uuna inta badan u dhoofiyaa USA ($476B), Japan ($255B), Germeny ($157B), UK ($62.3B), South Korea ($98.1B), India ($74.9B), Vietnam ($98B) Asiyada kale ($151B), Africa iyo qaar badan oo kale.

Waxa aynu si gaara u dul istaagi saamaynta covid 19 ee suuqyadda saamiyadda adduunka, dalabka badeecadaha dunida,  dalxiiska, duulimaadyadda diyaaradaha, isku socodka dadka iyo saamaynta dhaqaale ee mandaqadda Geeska Afrika ku yeelanayo.

Suuqyadda Saamiyadda Adduunka.

Fayraska Covid 19 waxa uu jahawareer, hoos u dhac iyo saamayn ku sameeyay sayladaha saamiyadda adduunka tusaale ahaan meeshii November 2019 index-yadda sayladuhu marayeen meeshii u saraysay (Up green ) taariikh ahaan laakiin,  bilahan Janaayo, Febraayo iyo Maarso 2020, halbeegyadda sayladuhu intooda badan waxa baxaya khad cas (Red down) oo hoos u dhac dhaqaale tilmaamaya.

Khasaaraha suuqa saamiyada ee adduunka ayaa kor u dhaafay $16T tan iyo marki uu sare u kacay bishii Febraayo cudurka Corona Virus.  Halka Shiinuhu waxdhoofintiisii (Chine exports) Janaayo iyo Febraayo 17.2% hoos u dhacay.

Tusaale ahaan sharikaadka shiinaha ka diwaan gashan waxa qiimahooodu hoos u dhacay $1T oo u dhigan hoos u dhac 6%, halka UK suuqa FTSE hoos u dhacay 5%, halka isna suuqa maraykan Dow Jones hoos u dhacay 6%, Suuqa Germany 7%, suuqyadda Italy 12%, Suuqa saamiyadda ee Dubai ayaa hoos isna u dhacay 7%, waddamadda soo koraya sida Maldives 40% uu hoos u dhacay.

Isku socodka dadka.

Xuduudihii isu furnaa waa la kala xidhay, diyaaradihii dunida u kala gooshayay waa la wada istaajiyay, shirkadihii waaweynaa waxa ay dalbanayaan kab/taageero dhaqaale (Subsidy), ka badan 10 qof meel iskuma iman karto, dalalka qaar qofkii dibada u soo baxa sabab la’aan ganaax lacageed (Fine-toned) ayaa la saarayaa sida dalka France oo kale, sidoo kale Sucuudiga hadii adiga oo socda 7 fiidnimo wixii ka dambeeya waxa aad mutaysanaysaa ganaax dhan $2600 , magaalooyinkii waaweynaa ee saxmada, dadka, ganacsiga, gawaadhida iyo dalxiiska waa wada haawanayaan dunida,  warshadihii waxsoosaarka albaabadda ayaa la iskugu laabay, culuska intan leeg  na waxaa ugu wacan soo ifbixidka cudurka iyo faafitaankiisa xawliga ku faafay.  Halkaasna waxa ku baaqatay lacag balaayiin doolar ah oo xisaab gaara u baahan.

Dalxiiska

Dalxiisayaasha Shiinaha waxay celcelis ahaan $762 qofkiiba ku iibsadeen adeegsiga safarradooda ugu dambeeyay ee dibeda ah, halka dalxiisayaasha aan ahayn Shiinaha ay celcelis ahaan gaarayaan $468, sida lagu sheegay jariiradda Reuters.  Waddanka Thailand, shirkadaha dalxiisku waxa ay wajahayaan hoos u dhac dakhli oo dhan $1.6B, markii shiinuhu xayiraad ku soo ragay dalxiiisayaasha.

UAE in ka badan 17 Million oo dad dalxiisayaala ayay soo jiidataa sanad walba balse haatan sida Damik jariiradda CNBC u sheegay inay sanadkan hoos u dhac u yimi sababta fayraska faafaya awgeed horaanta bilowgan 2020.

Sanad wal Sucuudi Carabiya waxaa gaadha ilaa 20 Million oo qof kuwaas oo badankooda u taga “UJEEDO CIBAADO” (Religious Purpose). Boqortooyadda Sucuudiga ayaa albaabada u xidhay masaajidada, waxa ayna soo rogtay xayiraado safar oo in waddamada qaar aanay soo aadi doonin waddankooda, baqdin ay ka qabto in fayrasku ku soo faafo, balse tani Boqortooyadda waxa ay uga dhigan tahay inay la kulmayso hoos u dhac dhaqaale sababtoo ah safaradda dalkeeda lagu yimaado iyo masaajidyadda barakaysan waxa ay ka faa’idaa lacag balaayiin dollar ah.

Warbixin World Bank daabacay ayuu ku sheegay in waddamada saxahara ka hooseeyaa (Sub Sahara Africa) dalxiisayaasha dunida ka helaan cadad fa’aaido oo dhan $62B, tani oo halbeegga GDP-ga Gobolka SSA ka noqonaysa 3.7%.  Ethiapia waxa ay dalxsiika iyo safarka dalkeeda loo soo aado ka heshay sanadkay 2017 lacag dhan $7.4B, oo dhaqaalaha guud ee itoobiya (Ethiopia Total Economy) ka noqonaysaa 9.4%.

Duulimaadyadda

Maalin walba in ka badan dhowr boqol oo kun oo duulimaad ayaa caalamka iskaga kala gooshi jiray, duulimaadyadaasi intoodii badnayd madaaradda ayay fadhiyaan, saamaynta korona fayras aawadeed. Fayraska Covid 19 ayaa saamayn ba’an ku yeeshay duulimaadyadda caalamka ee maalinlaha ahaa. IATA (Ururka Caalamiga ah ee Duulista Hawada) ayaa saadaalinaya in shirkadaha duulimaadyadda ay ku dhici doonaan khasaare 11% boqolkiiba dakhliga rakaabka (Passenger revenue) sananka oo u dhiganta $63B. Tani waxa ay ka sooo baxday qiyaas hore oo ah $29.3B, oo ay soo saartay IATA bishii Febraayo 20, taas oo salka ku haysa samaynta dillaaca Covid 19.

Ethiapia Airline oo ah shirkada duulimaadyadda Afrika ugu weyn, duulimaadka ugu badan ka dhax samaysa qaarada, sanadkii 2019 waxa soo galay dakhli dhan $7.4B rakaabka iyo badeecaddaha, hadda se waxa ay wajahaysaa hoos u dhac dhan 3.5% waxa ayna joojisay safaradii ay dunida ku kala aadi jirtay.

Shirkadihii duulimaadyadu waxa ay wajahayaan hoos u dhac weyn oo dhaqaale. Ma oga xilliga xaaladu isbedeli doonto iyo xilliga ay dib u soo noolaan doonto kalsoonidii rakaabka, maadaama faafintaan fayraska loo aaneeyay in diyaaraduhu qayb weyn ka qaateen faafitaankiisa qaarad ka qaarad, dal ka da.

Dalabka Badeecadaha Dunida

Xanuunka Corona Virus wuxuu ku socdaa xawaare yaab ah, waxa uu saamayn toosa ku keenay dalabaadkii aduunyadda (Global Demand side shock: Oil, &Fuel) gaar ahaan saliida yo shidaalka. Saliida cayriin halkii barmiil waxay maraysaa $31.15, iyada oo hoos u dhacday 5.5%. Saliida nooca Brent Crude oo ahayd $68 baarmiilkii, hadda waa $45 barmiilkii. Sicirka qiimaha shidaalka halkii barmiil ee afrika ayaa hoos u dhacay saddexdii bilood ee u horeeya 2020-ga Jan $61.6, Feb $53.6, March $35.5, halka April la saadaalinayaa inuu gaadho $30. Shirikaadka Saliida dhoofiyaa waxa ay dakhli dhan $65B luminayaan wakhti xaadirkan.

Joojinta isku socodka dadka, alaabada, iyo diyaaraduhu iyo is-xidhka warshadaha waxsoosaarka shiinuhu waxa ay si toosa u keenaysaa in hoos u dhacdo dalabkii  saliidii iyo shidaalkiii sababtoo ah dhamaan diyaaraduhu waxa ay isticmaalaan saliid iyo shidaan. Joojinta diyaaraduhuna waxa ay dhaawac culus gaadhsiinaysaa waddamada dhaqaalahoodu ku xidhan yahay soosaarka saliida iyo shidaalka sida Waddamada Khaliijka oo dhaqaale farabadan ka hela dhoofinta saliida iyo shidaalka.

WQ Bashir Maxamed Bashir

0634538873 / 0634450487

Borama, Awdal

Bashiirmaxamed653@gmail.com